Probability, Aging and a Pain in the Neck....

by Brad

It seems appropriate to discuss "probability" as I wait in my seat for takeoff on my flight to Vancouver on a sunny day in San Francisco in mid-may.  First probability calculation: what’s the likelihood that it will be sunny in Vancouver, a city a thousand miles north but also on the Pacific Coast? Better than the average expectation, but probably not by much given the low correlation between weather in the Pacific Northwest with that of the Bay Area, especially in late spring and summer.

Vancouver's Chinese Garden in the Rain by Nina Zolotow

I’m not sure how many calculations of this type most people make in a day, but I tend to think this way a lot (probability calculation #2: am I an outlier in this regard, say in the 5% fringe, or is this more common that I imagine?).  The reason to bring up probability with respect to aging is that most people don’t think about probabilities and randomness in looking at their future health—or their present state for that matter—and how it might change, for better or worse.  Or more to the point, how do changes you make right now influence your health, both in the near term as well as 10 or 20 years out (probability calculation #3: I expect to live say another 25 years or so to about 85, but 90 or so seems considerably more uncertain, even with a exercise, yoga and a good diet). 

Several months ago I was aghast to read a letter to the editor in the New York Times from a woman who couldn’t understand why she unable to get pregnant in her late thirties since she had been taken care of herself, had been eating well, and practiced yoga daily.  She apparently believed that her (good) behavior would insure health and fertility through her thirities.  Probability calculation #4: what is the likelihood that a woman in her late thirities can get pregnant relatively easily, and how much is this is improved if she's in relatively good health? I suspect the answer is that the improvement is small, despite what one might expect. This is just one of thousands of puzzling, fascinating, and at times callous probabilities that govern our lives in a world governed by processes that are themselves inherently random. Try as we might to make rational decisions that we believe will influence our present and future selves in predictable ways, this is clearly not the full story. 

The birth of modern quantum physics over one hundred years ago taught us that even the most basic particles that make up our universe—electrons, protons, light, etc.—are governed by rules that are probabilistic.  Einstein’s famous lament that “God doesn’t play dice with universe” was a last stand against the onslaught of quantum weirdness and other concepts that now dominate our thinking on the physical laws of the universe.  But biology is also subject to these same probabilities, such as the underlying molecular principles of random DNA mutations in evolutionary theory.  Biological aging also has many random elements, or stochastic processes. Indeed, some theorists have resisted any notion of programmed aging or defined biological process of aging per se, and rather believe that aging is inherently driven by the sum of hundred and thousands of random events every second that ultimately contribute to the overall aging process. As Yogi Berra once said, “If you see a fork in the road, take it.”

So as I sit in my airplane seat waiting for this trip to start, I also feel the pain in my neck that hasn’t gone away after a 23-day stretch of 10-12 hour days in front of computer working on grants and papers.  Oddly, I’ve done this many times before in my academic career, but hadn’t any neck pain that didn’t take more than a day or two go away. But I’m 59 now, and this time is different.  Probability calculation #6: if I just ignore this and take some ibuprophen for a few days, will it go away on its own?  As it turned out, no such luck….  It had seemed a reasonable bet since I had done nothing I hadn’t done many time before in the last 30 years.  But of course I hadn’t factored in the "aging" component in this calculation, or the probability that this behavior was now going to come at a price.  So now I’m looking at how I can change my yoga practice to help alleviate this new and unwanted development.  Calculation #7: what’s the chance that if I spend 20-30 minutes a day in a few key poses (Downward-Facing Dog with a wall, Standing Forward Bend, a passive backbend over a rolled blanket ) that my neck pain will improve or, better yet, heal completely?  I’ll let you know in a few weeks.

And one last thing, the weather in Vancouver was beautiful when we arrived, but was followed by five days of overcast skies and intermittent rain. It was a great trip.